Diversity and Pluralism in the United States

Introduction

In 1900 the US population was 90% white, 10% black, and less than 1% Native American and Asian. Currently the population is significantly more diverse: 12% Hispanic, 12% Black, 4% Asian, less than 1% Native American, and 71% non-Hispanic white. The non-Hispanic white population is expected to decrease to 60% of the total over the next thirty years, and to become a minority of the population by 2060. The image most people have of the "average American" already is outdated, and will need to change dramatically as the multicultural nature of American society becomes more pronounced. Our goals are to clarify America's current racial and ethnic mosaic and to explain why it is likely to change so dramatically in the future. We will examine each of the five groups that are used in American discussions of racial and ethnic diversity:

• Hispanics
• Blacks or African Americans
• Asian Americans
• Native Americans
• Non-Hispanic Whites

Who are the 11.8% of Americans called "Hispanic"?

More than half are Mexican Americans. Mexican Americans number about 20.6 million and reside largely in the Southwest. There are 3.4 million Puerto Ricans, who live mainly in Puerto Rico and New York City. There are 1.2 million Cuban Americans, who live mainly in the Miami area. There are 10 million "other" Hispanics, largely from other Caribbean and Latin American countries. Some US cities have very large Hispanic populations that constitute sizable proportions of their populations.

The Hispanic population is growing rapidly. Thirty-eight percent of the Hispanic population is foreign born and immigration from Mexico, the Caribbean and Latin America is expected to continue at a high level. Hispanic women also have, on the average, three children (see Table 1). This is one more child than the US average. Because of high fertility and high immigration the proportion of the US population that is Hispanic is expected to increase rapidly over the next half century. By 2050 about 1 out of 4 Americans will be Hispanic.

Is "Hispanic" a racial or an ethnic category? The US government considers "Hispanic" to be an ethnic category. Many Hispanics consider it to be a racial category. This leads to much confusion. Here is the question that the US government used in the 2000 Census to determine who is Hispanic:

Officially, Hispanics are all individuals who checked one the "Yes" boxes on this question. This question was directly followed on the Census by the government's "race" question:

Notice that on the race question there is no "Hispanic" box. Also notice that an individual's "race" is whatever that "person considers himself/herself to be," and that a person now can be more than one race. About 40% of all "Hispanics" checked the "some other race" box. These Hispanics obviously did not consider themselves to be white, Black, American Indian, or Asian. They considered "Hispanic" to be a racial category. Most Hispanics who checked a race box checked the "white" box. About 6% of Hispanics checked more than one race box. This is the largest percentage of any US minority group choosing a multi-racial identity.

Who are the 12.2% of Americans called "Black" or "African American"?

The Black population is largely a native born population, the descendants of individuals brought from Africa as slaves. In 1790, the year of the first census, about 20% of the US population was Black. Early in the 19th century the importation of slaves was banned, and immigration was prohibited from sub-Saharan Africa. As immigration from Europe increased, the proportion of Blacks in the US population declined; by 1900 only 10% of the US population was Black.

In 1900 about 9 out of 10 Black Americans lived in the South. The mechanization of the cotton industry early in the 20th century, however, forced many Blacks to leave the South. They moved to the industrial cities of the North, especially New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Detroit. During the 1960s and 1970s industry began leaving the central cities where Blacks lived, and black unemployment increased. About that time Blacks began moving back to the South. Currently about 55% of Black Americans live in the South.

The Black population is growing slowly. There is a small stream of Black immigration from Africa and a somewhat larger stream of Black immigration from Caribbean countries. Immigration, however, is not a major source of growth of the Black population. Only 5% of Blacks are foreign born. Black women have on average 2.2 children (see Table 1), only slightly more children than the US average. As a result, the proportion of the US population that is Black can be expected to only slightly increase over the next fifty years from 12% to 13% of the US population.

Who are the 3.9% of Americans called "Asian Americans"?

Any individual who checked one the nine boxes on the census race question listing a variety of Asian and Pacific Island locales is officially an Asian American. There are 2.4 million Chinese Americans, 1.8 million Filipino Americans, 1.7 million Asian Indian Americans, and over 1 million Vietnamese Americans and Korean Americans.

Asian Americans live overwhelmingly on the West Coast, with smaller numbers living in certain cities in the Northeast.

San Francisco's population is about one-third Asian American, as is that of San Jose. Over two-thirds of Honolulu's population is Asian American. About 900,000 Asian Americans live in New York City where they make up about 10% of the population. In general, Asian Americans reside in specific cities on the two coasts.

The Asian American population is growing rapidly. Fifty-nine percent of Asian Americans were not born in the United States. They constituted the largest group immigrating to the US in the 1980s, and the second largest group, after Hispanics, immigrating in the 1990s. Asian American women have, on the average, a little more than 2 children per women (see Table 1), slightly less than the US average. The growth of the Asian American population, then, will depend on continued high rates of immigration. Assuming that Asian immigration stays at a high level, Asian Americans will increase from about 4% of the US population in 2000 to about 9% in 2050.

Who are the 0.7% of Americans called "Native Americans"?

Nearly all of the 2.5 million Native Americans are descendants of the original inhabitants of the United States. Contact with Europeans was devastating to Native American peoples. Their many millions declined to only 250,000 by 1900. Currently, the Cherokee and Navajo are the largest tribes, followed by the Choctaw, Sioux and Chippewa.

Native Americans are largely found in states west of the Mississippi river. Significant percentages live on reservations. This is the result of 19th century government policies that forcibly relocated Eastern tribes to reservation lands, often of marginal agricultural use, in the West.

The Native American population has increased significantly over the last 20 years, gaining more than a million in number. This increase largely is due to a growing tendency among Americans of mixed ancestry to reassert their Native American heritage. It is difficult to predict the growth of the Native American population. Native American women have, on the average, about 2.1 children, just about the US average (see Table 1). There is some immigration of Native Americans from Canada, but not a significant amount. Will Americans continue to redefine themselves as Native Americans? The expectation is that this trend will stop and that Native Americans will remain about 1% of the population.

Who are the 71% of Americans called "non-Hispanic Whites"?

In the 1960s the US government passed a number of laws aimed at addressing some of the equity problems facing the country. At that time many Blacks found it difficult to vote. Blacks and other groups faced discrimination in the job market. They did not have equal access to a wide variety of social services, from schools and hospitals to buses and trains. Voting rights laws and anti-discrimination laws were passed during this decade. These laws required that "minority groups" be legally defined. It was during this period that the category "Hispanic" came into being. Blacks, Asian Americans, Hispanics, and Native Americans all became official "minority groups" under these laws. The term "non-Hispanic White" came to be used to define those individuals who were not members of a legal minority group. This group is largely composed of individuals with a European heritage other than Spanish. They come from a wide variety of European backgrounds, with large numbers having German, Irish, English, and Italian ancestries.

The non-Hispanic White population is growing slowly. Currently non-Hispanic Whites are largely native born, only 3% being born abroad. Immigration from Europe is at low levels and is not expected to increase. Non-Hispanic white women have, on the average, less than 2 children each (see Table 1). With its immigration and fertility at low levels, this group's proportion of the population will decline from its current 71% to 53% in 2050 and 49% in 2060.

Conclusion

Immigration and differential fertility are making American society much more diverse. Over the next half century Hispanics and Asian Americans will increase as proportions of the population, Blacks and Native Americans will remain at about their current proportions, and the proportion of non-Hispanic Whites will decline dramatically.

Sources of Data:

We used the population projection and ethnic composition data contained in the US Census Bureau Report: "Projections of the Total Resident Population by 5-Year Age Groups, and Sex with Special Age Categories: Middle Series, 1999 to 2000" (NP-T3-A). This report can be accessed on the internet: http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/natsum.html.

We used the fertility data from "Births: Final Data for 2000," National Vital Statistics Reports 50, no. 5 (February 12, 2002). This report can be accessed on the internet: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr50/nvsr50_05.pdf