Fairfield University professor of economics issues forecast for Connecticut economy, is available for interviews

A national tax cut favoring investment will boost Connecticut's sluggish economy, but the state's recovery should lag at least two quarters behind the nation's, according to Edward Deak, Ph.D., professor of economics at Fairfield University.

Connecticut's higher income and property taxes, budget cuts and local and state job reductions will dampen the state's rebound, Dr. Deak said in his forecast of Connecticut's economic outlook for the New England Economic Project.

"Connecticut will most likely continue to experience a mild contraction until late in 2003, with a modest recovery in 2004 and an accelerating rate of expansion in 2005," Dr. Deak said in the report.

Additional findings include:

  • The unemployment rate rose from 2.1% in June 2000 to 5.2% in March 2003, with further small increases above 5% expected to the end of 2003. Slightly positive job growth and slower labor force gains should lower the unemployment rate to an average of 4.55% in 2004.
  • Connecticut's budget woes and remedies will be a drag on the state's economy in 2003 and 2004 as nominal personal income rises just 2.14% in 2003 to $150.9 billion. This gain is better than the 1.54% advance recorded in 2002, and personal income may grow 3.4% in 2004, yielding some fiscal relief.

Enclosed is a summary of Dr. Deak's forecast. Please feel free to quote from it with credit. Dr. Deak is also available for interviews. He can be reached at his office at (203) 254-4000, ext. 2866, or at home at (203) 268-6088.

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Media Contact: Nancy Habetz, (203) 254-4000, ext. 2647, nhabetz@fairfield.edu

Posted on June 6, 2003

Vol. 35, No. 322

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