Dr. Edward Deak issues report on Connecticut economic outlook

Continued growth in jobs, income, retail sales and home permits are all part of the economic projections reported by Dr. Edward J. Deak, professor of economics at Fairfield University, at the Economic Outlook Conference in Boston last month. Dr. Deak, who serves as the Connecticut Model Manager of the New England Economic Project, issues a report biannually on the state of the economy in Connecticut.

"Job gains are anticipated to total 23,300 in 1999," he said, "with all of the advance to be registered in nonmanufacturing positions." That bit of good news is tempered by the planned cuts at Electric Boat and the net effect of the reorganization at Pratt & Whitney, which together will result in the loss of some 2,000 jobs. Still, the anticipated overall job and labor force growth should hold unemployment at 3.3%, while increasing output by 2% and real income by 3.7%.

Major action by the Federal Reserve in 1998 in cutting interest rates three times led to "a swift and decisive reversal in the financial markets," Dr. Deak noted. "lending credibility to the assertions in prior NEEP reports regarding the high degree of Connecticut sensitivity to conditions in the financial markets."

Looking ahead to the years 2000-2003, he expects the Year 2000 to be the slowest, "with a stock market adjustment, some Y2K related problems and rising interest rates." Thereafter, Dr. Deak says, "Connecticut is expected to continue to make gains with employment rising by an average of 20,000 jobs per year to reach 1.745 million in 2003."

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Media Contact: Nancy Habetz, (203) 254-4000, ext. 2647, nhabetz@fairfield.edu

Posted on June 1, 1999

Vol. 31, No. 335

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